Dangerous forecasts

I caught myself making a dangerous forecast this morning. CNBC’s anchors were speculating on the length of the war in Iraq. I expect a short war and my attitude was reflecting it. “No way this thing will drag on for months”, thought I.

How many times do I remind myself to deal what what is and not with what should be? My investment decisions are now made expecting a short, sharp conflict while having a contingency plan should the war drag on.

Contingency plans are a pain. But when the excreta hits the air moving device — execute your plan, don’t wonder “what do I do now?”.

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