Category Archives: Psychology of the Deal

Investment psychology

Nobody knows anything – William Goldman

William Goldman opened his best-selling book Adventures in the Screen Trade with “Nobody knows anything”.

Goldman writes movies. Good ones. His filmography to date according to the Internet Movie Database:
Hearts in Atlantis (2001) (screenplay)
General’s Daughter, The (1999) (screenplay)
Absolute Power (1997) (screenplay)
Fierce Creatures (1997) (uncredited)
Ghost and the Darkness, The (1996) (written by)
Chamber, The (1996) (screenplay)
Maverick (1994) (written by)
Chaplin (1992) (screenplay)
Year of the Comet (1992) (written by)
Memoirs of an Invisible Man (1992) (screenplay)
Misery (1990) (screenplay)
Princess Bride, The (1987) (also novel)
Heat (1987) (also novel)
Mr. Horn (1979) (TV)
Magic (1978 ) (also novel)
Bridge Too Far, A (1977)
Marathon Man (1976) (novel)
All the President’s Men (1976)
Great Waldo Pepper, The (1975)
Stepford Wives, The (1975)
Hot Rock, The (1972)
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969) (written by)
That is one impressive list of credits. What has it got to do with wealth creation?

Goldman was talking about the film business and picking winners. His dictum applies to any industry where the results are affected by the interaction of huge numbers of people. Sort of like the property and stock markets and the business world.

After the event economists tell us why the economy changed. Bankers explain movements in interest rates. Stockbrokers clarify market gyrations. All with 20/20 hindsight. Popular prognosticators make dozens of predictions then point to the ones they got right.

People ask where is the next boom? Which suburb will take off? What IPO is the next Microsoft? Repeat after me “Nobody knows anything”.

The keyword is “knows”. Knowledge! Facts! Data! Wisdom! If analysis could give accurate predictions, we wouldn’t have booms and busts. Pricing information would be accurate. But certainty is impossible. Fool yourself into believing in certainty and I guarantee an expensive lesson. People who are certain get lazy and inattentive. They miss warning signs. They also get bored and meddle with a working system.

Figure out a plan to go forward. Consider your entry and exit strategies. What happens is it all goes pear-shaped. If you find yourself saying “that will never happen” then ask “but what will I do if it does?”

In 1991 I bet the farm that no federal Labor government would allow first mortgage interest rates to hit 18%. History proved me wrong and I lost a million dollars. Now I look at a deal and have exit strategies for good, bad and neutral scenarios. That way I deal with “what is” not “what should be”. If the unexpected occurs, I throw out the strategies and get creative.

Power lies in the ability to make drastic changes in the face of new and overwhelming obstacles. Think fast and use imagination to tap that power. Quit wasting energy and time trying to predict the future. Get out and have a go.

Lastly remember this:
Some people watch things happen;
some people make things happen; and
some people wonder “what happened?”

Which one are you?

12 Life Insurance Rules of Thumb

American Express called this week. They’re selling a life insurance policy. So here are a dozen Life Insurance Rules of Thumb.

1. For the Term of his natural life?, or Jargon Busters

Term Life Insurance is a straight-up insurance policy. You die (or some other defined incident) and the insurer pays money. Whole of Life Insurance has a savings component and surrender value. Commissions, fees and charges are higher on Whole of Life, plus it takes about 20 years for Whole of Life to offer a decent return.

What to do?
a) Buy term – invest the rest. Note that second phrase.
b) Build your asset base to provide sufficient income, until insurance is no longer required.

2. Never buy insurance from telemarketers, or On sweatshops and boiler rooms.

How much money would it take to make you ring people at home in the evenings to sell stuff? They can’t pay me enough.

Nella used to sell trade magazine advertising over the phone. Nella gave great phone for great commissions. Telemarketing is an expensive business and your premiums pay for it.

3. Cheap and “easy”, “no medical” insurance isn’t, or What free lunch?

Online, I compared three Term policies from two insurers monthly premiums.

Insured Amount Monthly Premium Co. A Monthly  Premium Co. B
$100,000 $15.07 $12.30
$200,000 $22.65 $24.60
$300,000 $27.28 $35.98

Most brokers can get an average person $500,000 coverage for the $300.000 premium.

4. Don’t smoke, or Can you say Yule Brunner and Steve McQueen?

You know it kills you? Well, your insurance company knows it. Smoking will add about 75% to your premium. BTW, I know it’s “Yul Brynner” but you’d be surprised how many people search Google with the misspelling.

5. TPD? Better than ADHD

Total and Permanent Disability cover is expensive and full of “exclusions”. That’s insurance speak for reasons not to pay you. However it is nice to get paid as soon as something bad is diagnosed. So I have Term Life and a much smaller $100,000 TPD cover. Should a bad thing happen I get money for treatment and to put my affairs in order. Term cover will then pay out when the end comes.

6. Only insure income producing assets, or Do you want fries with that?

Brokers love to upsell. Your home-maker spouse allows you to work and you’d miss them on cold nights. Don’t insure them unless they make mortgage payments. Invest the premium instead.

7. Review your insurance at least every two years, or know when to fold ’em

Once your assets are feeding you, do you really need half a million in Term Life? Thinkaboudit!

8. Income Protection Insurance, or You don’t need it, till you need it

Can you afford 6 months unable to work? Would your investments eat you? Watch out for medical history excluding you on this.

9. Get Term Life before 34 but not too soon, or How old am I again?

Most people can qualify for Term Life before 34. Does a 23 year-old without obligations need it? No.

10. Start investing, or That means today, slacker!

Do something about it today. Insurance companies only write business for the cashflow to invest. There’s a lesson in that.

11. The most powerful force in the universe?, or Up, up and away

Compound interest. There’s an article in just this. You do know that at 10% p.a. you double your money every 7.2 years?

12. Add your own, or Whose life is this anyway?

I can’t tell you everything or you won’t learn. Get a piece of paper out and write a plan. Now. I’ll wait…

Then add a reply down there with the suggestion…

I’m waiting…

Really…

Psychology of the Deal

Welcome to WealthEsteem — dedicated to the Psychology of the Deal.

What does WealthEsteem mean to you?

These are my musings on wealth creation, written during the quest for my second fortune. If my ideas work, great! See you in Monaco sipping Cosmopolitans. If they don’t, it’s a map of my folly. Hoist a cool drink to my memory and imbibe responsibly.

For the record, I made my first fortune by the time I was 26 and lost it and more by the time I was 27. The details should emerge in the Diary as time goes on.

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