Sell 6298 ALZ @ 1.35

I love it when a plan comes together. 😀

ALZ may well move back up over 1.40 and I’ve left money on the table. But nobody ever went broke taking a profit. This may well be the bottom of the market but I don’t think so. The Dow and NASDAQ both ended down overnight. The economic outlook is not wonderful.

The profit on this two day trade is 4 cps or 2.5% after brokerage. I wish I could get 2.5% per week.

Housing Boom

I don’t know what the immediate future of the Sydney (and other Oz capitals) property market is.

Will it continue to boom? Historically low interest rates, poor stock market performance and the need to increase suburban densities suggest business as usual. Superannuation and commercial/industrial property funds are adding asset allocation pressure as well.

The counter argument points to rising vacancies (with falling rents), and the obvious disconnect between household wages (or rents achieved) and property prices.

Every past property boom has corrected. Why would this one be any different? I just don’t know when and by how much the correction will occur. Therefore I don’t know anything, right?

My guess is provided credit remains “easy” there should be a soft landing. In the meantime the market could surge ahead enough to counter the correction. Waiting around for the market to bottom could be an expensive exercise in missed opportunities.

How do I use this? Have a plan of action in case things go worse than expected. What will I do with my investments, my residence an my business if the market corrects? If the worst occurs then I’ve got a plan. If things keep booming then I’ve lost nothing.

Buy 6298 ALZ @ 1.31

ALZ has come off 15 cents (10.27%) over the last month. There has been some negative research on it. However they pay nice quarterly dividends, so holding at this point is ok if this trade doesn’t go anywhere. ALZ hasn’t announced the next quarterly dividend yet.

My sell point is 1.35 for a 3% gain. I guess a stop-loss at $1.26 would be wise, but I’m not sure of it.

Avoiding mistakes?

I suffer from analysis paralysis — a delusion that if I get enough data and study it enough, I can remove risk from an investment.

To deal with this shortcoming I talk to myself. More than normal ;). I remind myself that Mark Twain has an answer for every occasion. In this instance he said

Good decisions come from experience
Experience comes from making bad decisions
— Mark Twain

What a neat concept. Click comments and let me know what you think of that.

A new look

As some of you know, my site is not about community building. Go visit the Somersoft Forum or chat room to meet some wonderful people. I also like the Freestyler Network for meeting like minded people in the real world.

This site is more a journal or diary. A stream of consciousness philosophy if you will. Therefore the PostNuke CMS which ran the site was overkill. It’s a very good open source Content Management System however.

Also the layout gave visitors the impression that I wanted them to register or somehow be accountable.

Therefore I installed new software — b2 – a classy weblog tool. Hopefully it will be a bit easier on my server and less intimidating to readers.

Wish me luck.

All posts in the old forum will be ported to the blog over the next few days. The blog will continue to be hosted on my server. I may have intermittent outages, but what better way to know about them?