Beginners win while others get burned

Surprisingly often, beginners do good first deals in real estate, the financial markets and business.

Why? Answer by clicking comments, but I’ll lead off with a fairly analytical approach.

My theory is successful newbies are cautious and actually begin. What do I mean by this?

Character traits of the cautious:

  • Have an inbuilt drive to do some sort of research (also known as due diligence);
  • Discover (or formulate) some simple guidelines;
  • Understand the investment enough to describe it simply;
  • Consult with experience;
  • Take responsibility for their decision.
  • Beginners who begin:

  • Overcome analysis paralysis;
  • Deal with the fear of making mistakes;
  • Take action until they get results.
  • Then what happens? Intermediate investors overestimate their abilities once they gain knowledge. Did you know that most people rate their driving ability as “above average”?

    Investors tweak their system. Instead of following the simple guidelines that led to success in the first place, they make adjustments. The strategy becomes a patchwork of plans. Few intermediate strategies can be articulated in one sentence.

    Experience leads to on-the-fly decisions, because overconfidence creeps in. This allows emotion to take over the rational decision-maker. Greater risks are taken to avoid a loss and exit strategies become poorly defined

    Three steps for Intermediate Investors to avoid the trap.

  • Express your strategy in one sentence. e.g. “buy big cap stocks with a P/E under 12 and a Price/Asset ratio over 1” or “3 bedroom houses within 10kms of the CBD with a yield above 6.5%”.
  • Build on the basics. Musicians practice scales and exercises as the building blocks of performance. Your wealth creation strategy is the same.
  • Use a written plan to outline the deal. This forces you to think ahead, remove emotion from the process and develop an exit strategy.
  • NCP Market Commentary

    I’ve been travelling on business. As it turns out I didn’t have a usable internet link. I’m back today as the market closes on NCP at 9.95. Makes me wish I’d sold all the holding at 10.85 last week.

    I’m still bearish on the longer term and maybe I should be trading Puts instead.

    I learned not to keep positions open while on holidays. This teaches me the same lesson with business travel.

    A Metaphor for Mastery

    I used this metaphor back when I ran courses. So here’s a freebie.

    Remember when you learned to drive?

    As a child you were Unconsciously Incompetent. You didn’t know how to drive and didn’t realise it.

    Consciously Incompetent – your first time behind the wheel. You didn’t know how to drive and hooboy do you know it!

    Consciously Competent – Somewhere between L’s and P’s. You can drive, but nobody is allowed to talk to you while you do it. You can drive but it takes all your attention to keep doing it.

    Unconsciously competent. Drive, talk, eat, abuse other drivers and check the street directory AND street signs. Did you really pay attention to every gear change and turn on your last drive. Yes it is mastery, but it happens without your attention.

    To bring this back to your WealthEsteem…

    Learning a skill takes attention and experience. Eventually experience takes over and requires little attention.

    Investing takes courage to begin or return to after a setback. Experience teaches you to say “What else can I do?”

    Hope you apply it.

    Sell 920 NCP @ 10.85

    NCP opened at 10.90 (up 0.32) and slid down to 10.79 at midday. The entire portfolio is in profit. But I don’t think things have bottomed yet.

    So I decided to sell half the NCP holding at a close to high price of 10.85 at 3:00pm.

    I am overweight NCP and that exceeds the 3% target gain. So if NCP heads down I’m still in profit. If it keeps climbing I’ve taken some profit and it is cheap insurance.

    Nobody knows anything – William Goldman

    William Goldman opened his best-selling book Adventures in the Screen Trade with “Nobody knows anything”.

    Goldman writes movies. Good ones. His filmography to date according to the Internet Movie Database:
    Hearts in Atlantis (2001) (screenplay)
    General’s Daughter, The (1999) (screenplay)
    Absolute Power (1997) (screenplay)
    Fierce Creatures (1997) (uncredited)
    Ghost and the Darkness, The (1996) (written by)
    Chamber, The (1996) (screenplay)
    Maverick (1994) (written by)
    Chaplin (1992) (screenplay)
    Year of the Comet (1992) (written by)
    Memoirs of an Invisible Man (1992) (screenplay)
    Misery (1990) (screenplay)
    Princess Bride, The (1987) (also novel)
    Heat (1987) (also novel)
    Mr. Horn (1979) (TV)
    Magic (1978 ) (also novel)
    Bridge Too Far, A (1977)
    Marathon Man (1976) (novel)
    All the President’s Men (1976)
    Great Waldo Pepper, The (1975)
    Stepford Wives, The (1975)
    Hot Rock, The (1972)
    Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969) (written by)
    That is one impressive list of credits. What has it got to do with wealth creation?

    Goldman was talking about the film business and picking winners. His dictum applies to any industry where the results are affected by the interaction of huge numbers of people. Sort of like the property and stock markets and the business world.

    After the event economists tell us why the economy changed. Bankers explain movements in interest rates. Stockbrokers clarify market gyrations. All with 20/20 hindsight. Popular prognosticators make dozens of predictions then point to the ones they got right.

    People ask where is the next boom? Which suburb will take off? What IPO is the next Microsoft? Repeat after me “Nobody knows anything”.

    The keyword is “knows”. Knowledge! Facts! Data! Wisdom! If analysis could give accurate predictions, we wouldn’t have booms and busts. Pricing information would be accurate. But certainty is impossible. Fool yourself into believing in certainty and I guarantee an expensive lesson. People who are certain get lazy and inattentive. They miss warning signs. They also get bored and meddle with a working system.

    Figure out a plan to go forward. Consider your entry and exit strategies. What happens is it all goes pear-shaped. If you find yourself saying “that will never happen” then ask “but what will I do if it does?”

    In 1991 I bet the farm that no federal Labor government would allow first mortgage interest rates to hit 18%. History proved me wrong and I lost a million dollars. Now I look at a deal and have exit strategies for good, bad and neutral scenarios. That way I deal with “what is” not “what should be”. If the unexpected occurs, I throw out the strategies and get creative.

    Power lies in the ability to make drastic changes in the face of new and overwhelming obstacles. Think fast and use imagination to tap that power. Quit wasting energy and time trying to predict the future. Get out and have a go.

    Lastly remember this:
    Some people watch things happen;
    some people make things happen; and
    some people wonder “what happened?”

    Which one are you?

    WealthEsteem’s 12 Life Insurance Rules of Thumb

    American Express called Nella this week. They’re selling a life insurance policy. So here are a dozen Life Insurance Rules of Thumb.
    1. For the Term of his natural life? Jargon Busters
    Term Life Insurance is a straight-up insurance policy. You die (or some other defined incident) and the insurer pays money. Whole of Life Insurance has a savings component and surrender value. Commissions, fees and charges are higher on Whole of Life, plus it takes about 20 years for Whole of Life to offer a decent return.
    What to do?
    a) [i]Buy term – invest the rest[/i]. Note that second phrase.
    b) Build your asset base to provide sufficient income, until insurance is [b]no longer required[/b].

    [b]2. Never buy insurance from telemarketers[/b], or [i]On sweatshops and boiler rooms[/i].
    How much money would it take to make you ring people at home in the evenings to sell stuff? They can’t pay me enough.
    Nella used to sell trade magazine advertising over the phone. Nella gave great phone for great commissions. Telemarketing is an expensive business and premiums pay for it.

    [b]3. Cheap and “easy”, “no medical” insurance isn’t[/b], or [i]What free lunch?[/i]
    Online, I compared three Term policies from two insurers monthly premiums.

    Amount Co. A Co. B
    $100,000 $15.07 $12.30
    $200,000 $22.65 $24.60
    $300,000 $27.28 $35.98

    Most brokers can get an average person $500,000 coverage for the $300.000 premium.

    [b]4. Don’t smoke[/b], or [i]Can you say Yule Brunner and Steve McQueen?[/i]
    You know it kills you? Well your insurance company knows it. Smoking will add about 75% to your premium. I know it’s “Yul Brynner” but you’d be surprised how many people search Google with the misspelling.

    [b]5. TPD?[/b] [i]Better than ADD[/i].
    Total and Permanent Disability cover is expensive and full of “exclusions”. That’s insurance speak for reasons not to pay you. However it is nice to get paid as soon as something bad is diagnosed. So I have Term Life and a much smaller $100,000 TPD cover. Should a bad thing happen I get money for treatment and to put my affairs in order. Term cover will then pay out when the end comes.

    [b]6. Only insure income producing assets[/b], or [i]Do you want fries with that?[/i]
    Brokers love to upsell. Your home-maker spouse allows you to work and you’d miss them on cold nights. Don’t insure them unless they make mortgage payments. Invest the premium instead.

    [b]7. Review your insurance at least every two years[/b], or [i]know when to fold ’em[/i].
    Once your assets are feeding you, do you really need half a million in Term Life? Thinkaboudit!

    [b]8. Income Protection Insurance[/b], or [i]You don’t need it, till you need it.[/i]

    Can you afford 6 months unable to work? Would your investments eat you? Watch out for medical history excluding you on this.

    [b]9. Get Term Life before 34 but not too soon[/b], or [i]How old am I again?[/i]
    Most people can qualify for Term Life before 34. Does a 23 year-old without obligations need it? No.

    [b]10. Start investing[/b], or [i]That means today, slacker![/i]
    Do something about it today. Insurance companies only write business for the cashflow to invest. There’s a lesson in that.

    [b]11. The most powerful force in the universe?[/b], or [i]Up, up and away[/i]
    Compound interest. There’s an article in just this. You do know that at 10% p.a. you double your money every 7.2 years?

    [b]12. Add you’re own[/b] or [i]Whose life is this anyway?[/i]
    I can’t tell you everything or you won’t learn. Get a piece of paper out and write a plan. Now. I’ll wait…

    Then add a reply down there with the suggestion…

    I’m waiting…


    Buy 5745 ALZ @ 1.40

    ALZ is Australand. They are property developers.
    At a Freestyler Network meeting in late July, I was told ALZ paid a 3c fully franked quarterly dividend (ex-div 9-Aug) and the stock was around $1.40.
    Downside analysis should it become a long term hold:

  • An annualised 8.57% yield before franking credits.
  • My overall portfolio is underweight Sydney real estate (I’m bearish on it but I’ve been wrong before). So stock market exposure to the property market.